President-elect Donald Trump has made bold promises to the American public, pledging to reduce consumer prices, enhance the affordability of healthcare, and safeguard Social Security. Now, the challenge lies in the execution of these vows. Economic concerns, particularly regarding inflation and living costs, were pivotal in Trump's electoral success. Exit polls indicated that a staggering 68% of voters perceived the economy as being in poor or subpar condition. While the president's capacity to shape economic policy is subject to Congressional approval, Trump will be held accountable for fulfilling his promises once he takes office on January 20th. Here are seven potential ways the Trump administration could impact your personal finances.
On the campaign trail, Trump proposed an expansion of the child tax credit, which offers tax relief to parents. Although the specifics are lacking, his website's policy platform hints at such an expansion. During his first term, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act temporarily increased the child tax credit from $1,000 to $2,000, a provision set to sunset by 2025. With Congressional backing, Trump could extend these tax cuts or introduce new policies. JD Vance, the Vice President-elect, has even suggested a more ambitious increase to $5,000, though Trump has not yet weighed in on this figure. Maria Castillo Dominguez, a financial planner and the founder of Valoria Wealth Management, emphasized the credit's importance, especially for families with young children grappling with childcare expenses.
Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for the Trump-Vance transition team, assured in a statement that Trump is committed to his campaign promises. "The American people have resoundingly reaffirmed their trust in President Trump, granting him a mandate to follow through on his pledges," Leavitt stated. "He will deliver."
The Trump administration is also expected to prioritize the extension of tax cuts introduced by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which are scheduled to expire in 2025. This extension would necessitate Congressional approval. According to an analysis by the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, extending Trump's 2017 tax cuts would reduce taxes by an average of $2,000 in 2026. However, nearly half of these tax benefits would accrue to the top 5% of households earning over $450,000. The Tax Policy Center also noted that the top 1% of households would save approximately $70,000, or 3.2% of their income, while middle-income families would save about $1,000, or 1.3% of their income.
Trump has also touched on ending double taxation for US citizens residing overseas and making auto loan interest rates tax-deductible, though he has not elaborated on these promises. He has even suggested abolishing federal income tax in favor of revenue from tariffs, a proposal that Alan Auerbach, an economics professor at UC Berkeley, deems financially unfeasible due to the insufficiency of tariff revenue to replace federal income tax.
Trump has pledged not to "cut one penny" from Social Security, yet he has proposed eliminating federal taxes on Social Security benefits, tips, and overtime pay. Such a move would provide temporary relief but could deplete the funds needed for Social Security, leading to reduced benefits for workers, according to the Tax Policy Center. Households earning $32,000 or less would not benefit from this federal tax cut, as most of their Social Security income is already tax-free. Under Trump's proposal, the Social Security fund reserves could be depleted by 2031, with a 33% decrease in benefits for enrollees by 2035, as reported by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
The fate of the Biden administration's student loan debt forgiveness plan remains uncertain, and the Trump administration could play a decisive role in this matter for millions of Americans hoping for debt relief. Efforts to forgive student loan debt, as attempted by the Biden administration, are likely to be abandoned under Trump, according to Auerbach. As of August, some of President Joe Biden's initiatives to alleviate student loan debt were still blocked by a Supreme Court ruling. Trump's policy platform is silent on student loan debt, and during his first term, he failed to end the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program.
Concerns about inflation were instrumental in Trump's re-election. However, under his proposed policies, inflation could surge. In October, inflation rose to 2.6%, its first increase in six months, according to the Consumer Price Index. Trump's proposed tariffs of 10% to 20% on imports could lead to higher everyday consumer prices, as indicated by a report by the National Retail Federation. For instance, athletic shoes that cost $90 could see a price increase to $106 to $116 under Trump's tariffs. Additionally, his proposal for mass deportations could drive up food prices, as undocumented immigrants often work in agriculture or food processing, potentially leading to labor shortages if deported.
On healthcare, Trump has been inconsistent in his approach to modifying the Affordable Care Act. His policy platform expresses a desire to "promote choice and competition" to make healthcare more affordable, but it lacks specific details. Americans enrolled in the ACA marketplace are likely to face increased healthcare costs after a key pandemic tax credit expires at the end of 2025. The 2021 American Rescue Plan Act introduced enhanced premium tax credits to reduce out-of-pocket costs for eligible ACA enrollees, which were extended through 2025 by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. However, a Republican-led Congress is likely to let these enhanced personal tax credits expire, according to KFF, a nonprofit health policy group. These credits save enrollees about $700 a year, and if they expire, approximately 19.7 million Americans will face increased healthcare expenses.
Regarding Medicare, Trump has pledged not to "cut one penny" from the program. "At least in the short run, I don't anticipate any significant cuts in Medicare benefits," Auerbach said, noting Trump's recognition of its popularity. Trump's policy platform also indicates his administration's intention to promote homeownership "through tax incentives and support for first-time buyers," and to open "limited portions" of federally owned lands for "new home construction." However, Trump has not provided further details on this platform.
The Trump administration is expected to cut red tape to encourage business and real estate developments. Housing costs are often influenced more by local regulations than national policy, Auerbach noted. Trump's plan for mass deportations could reduce the labor force in the construction sector, exacerbating the already tight housing supply and potentially leading to higher prices. As for mortgages, more affordable rates could result from the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates, which set the cost of borrowing between banks and influence the interest rates paid by consumers on loans, credit cards, and mortgages.
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